Ethiopian-Eritrean Conflict Could Heat Up, Official Tells Congress

United States Department of State (Washington, DC)
NEWS
May 9, 2005
Posted to the web May 10, 2005

By Jim Fisher-Thompson
Washington, DC

State's Donald Yamamoto cautions war by "miscalculation" always possible

The smoldering border conflict between Ethiopia and Eritrea that cost 100,000 casualties before active fighting ended more than four years ago could flare up again and is the focus of U.S. government concerns for the region, Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for African Affairs Donald Yamamoto told Congress May 5.

Yamamoto appeared before the House Subcommittee on Africa, Global Human Rights, and International Operations, which is looking into a fragile peace that observers fear is unraveling because of a dispute over implementing the April 2002 findings of a United Nations-sponsored border commission.

He told subcommittee Chairman Christopher Smith (Republican of New Jersey), "The immediate relevance of these two countries [Ethiopia and Eritrea] to U.S. interests is their location in the Horn of Africa, and stability in the Horn is a priority for the U.S. Government in the global war on terrorism." Therefore, "avoiding another war between Ethiopia and Eritrea is key to ensuring stability in that troubled region."

According to Yamamoto, the United States has been an active international partner in seeking a peaceful solution to the crisis and, since July 2004, has contributed over $58 million to the U.N. Mission to Eritrea and Ethiopia (UNMEE), the force that monitors the disputed border.

"Unfortunately, the demarcation process has come to a standstill," Yamamoto said. "The result has been a cold but increasingly tense peace between the countries with both maintaining large numbers of troops along the borders."

Asked by Chairman Smith if war was "imminent," Yamamoto said, "We believe war can happen at any time. While both countries have disciplined militaries, a miscalculation can happen."

The effects of a general war between the two countries could be "devastating", the diplomat added, having tangential ramifications like increased insurance rates for ships bringing relief supplies into Djibouti for victims of the conflict.

Yamamoto told lawmakers the problem is "We have two very valued allies" in Ethiopia and Eritrea and "two leaders who are perhaps the brightest and most gifted on the continent." But the political and economic issues separating them are complex. "The border remains a fault line and both governments are re-arming. While there is no rush to war, the prospects for renewed conflict are real and troubling."

In a statement he read, Chairman Smith said, "Again, Eritrea and Ethiopia are concentrating on building their military forces and they are neglecting the very pressing needs of their people. It is difficult to understand why these formerly friendly nations would risk further devastation for territory not particularly blessed with natural resources."

An obviously frustrated-sounding Smith noted, "both Eritrea and Ethiopia make themselves more vulnerable to internal turmoil by their inability to address the many other vital issues they face even if there is a stalemate in the border dispute. This is neither in the short term interest of these two nations nor in the long-term strategic interest of the United States."

For former U.S. Ambassador to Ethiopia David Shinn the reasons for tension run much deeper. He told the subcommittee, "The problem is, in fact, much greater than the demarcation of the border and involves the totality of the Ethiopian-Eritrean relationship both today and since 1991," when the current Ethiopian government came to power.

Shinn, now an adjunct professor of international relations at George Washington University and renowned Ethiopia expert, said "the problem has become complicated recently by suggestions from the Eritrean side that Ethiopia's unwillingness to accept the demarcation decision will lead to war. There is, however, no reason for Ethiopia to initiate war. It holds those parts of the border awarded to Eritrea by the Boundary Commission. [And] The U.N. force continues to monitor the 15-mile buffer zone, all of which is located in territory administered by Eritrea prior to the 1998 war [which the Algiers Agreement ended in December 2000]."

The former diplomat was quick to add, "So long as this dispute remains a public shouting match, however, there is virtually no chance it will be resolved. It is at the point where only quiet, behind-the-scenes discussions, preferably assisted by the good offices of an outside party acceptable to both sides, will achieve a solution."