American New Initiative On Eritrea/Ethiopia Border: Why Now?


I think I should start by saying, Why not now? After almost 4 years no significant progress has been made as far as demarcating the border, even though there has been a final and binding decision by an international court. For one reason or another all the guarantors of the Alegeris agreement, AU, UN, European union and last but not least the United States have all turned their head the other way, as Ethiopia continuously refuses to accept the ruling that could bring a final and a lasting peace. To our dismay these same Guarantors of peace have found all kind of unnecessary reasons to even find Eritrea to be the blame for the failure of this peace plan. One could safely say at this point the UNMEE has failed and short of packing their troops from the area, which the secretary general actually has proposed in his latest six ridiculous proposal to the UNSC, no tangible movement is being done to bring the injustice of the Ethiopian government to accept this ruling and bring peace to the region.

So why at this almost last hour America is trying a new initiative. First let us not fool our self by even thinking there is any new initiative, Because there isn’t. There is no legal basis for any new Initiative nor could any new initiative at this last stage of the game has any remote chance of succeeding. The United States Government is not stupid at this stage of the game to entertain any new idea or initiative that has a chance to fail. And if there is any thing in the past four years the US has learned, it is the fact that our GOE will not yield to any maneuvering by any world powers in to giving in, to get engaged in an endless dialogue with Ethiopia. In the past four years, western bodies especially the US by shouldering the illegal move of the Woyane regime have tried to frustrate the Eritrean government. So what is clear here is be it the UN through their chief agent Koffi Anan nor The US through its silent and bias stand against Eritrea, could not dictate or intimidate our GOE to back down from doing what is right.

Historically it is very hard to find a time or place where the US has gone out of its way in intervening between other countries to bring any meaning full changes. The only time that happens is when US interest is at stake. And what is at stake today is US interest. My understanding is given the past 7 month of Ethiopian political commission, one could easily see the Melse group is loosing grip and control of the people. Every day we here of some form of uprising be it in Addis, or Gonder, or Gambella or some where in the country. There even has been reports of the 8 division of woyan army that was pulled back from the Eritrean-Ethiopian border 4 have been spread through out the country while the other 4 division are spread through out tigraye. This shows the Government is in the process of thinning out its army in the hopes to fight and bring down the entire uprising that is going on. There is also reports that great number of youth are being taken away from tigray for military training under the disguise that Amhara’s are coming to attack you thus we better be prepared.

This trend of uprising is only the beginning, as time goes it is going to intensify. What is interesting to note is the dislike to the Melse regime seems across the nation except in tigray. So it is only a matter of short time before the people of Ethiopia get rid of the woyane cliques. A war with Eritrea at this time, will if any thing make things more complicated almost will guaranty the end of the Woyane regime because will create opportunity for most of the oppositions to start armed struggle if they have not already. So this is where the US comes in to try help this dying regime in giving it some hope of survival. After all attempts to frustrate Eritrea have failed, The US is weighing in its options. And clear enough they know at this stage, War with Eritrea means the end for Meles’s regime. For whatever reason the US is bent on saving MELESE. And Melese seems to be heading to be a sandwich between The Eritrean armed force and the poplar uprising of the Ethiopian people. There is no escape from this. And that is why for the so called new initiative of America at this last minute we see them trying to end the border conflict, to give Melse a breathing ground so he can focus his attention on the uprisings that is taking place in Ethiopia. In the process it is also in the best interest of the US, the area does not go in to turmoil and war, which in theory could give the illusion of failed states, that could be the breeding ground of terrorism.

I want to view this new American move from two sides, one from the US and the other from WOYANE. From The US side, they know Melese is very weak and fragile at this time internally, and they also know the opposition is not dying down if any thing it is getting stronger and getting momentum by the day. And America has made its policies at least for now to stick with Melse and not with the opposition. If Melse is to go to war, the chances of him, having enough army left at the end of the war to try to contain any uprising inside the country is very slim if not dead. So it does make a lot of sense from the US interest point, that Melese not go to war and stay put and use his army to contain the uprising while America tries to work out differences with in the oppositions. Even if Melese does not like this idea, US knows unlike Eritrea who does not depend by the milk bottle of America, Melese must get his milk from US. And all America has to say especially now that the European union and the world bank has decided to restrict some economic assistant, no more assistance and they know they have this power over Melse. If he refuses that Melse is aware America will shift policy in to the opposition side, and He will be on the next flight to Zimbabwe.

On the Melse’s side, it reminds me of how His ancestor king Yohannies was once in a bind between trying to choose a war with the foreign army that was coming through Sudan and Minilk who was ganging up against Yohannies for the thrown. King Yohannies after advising his officers and clergymen he opted to fight the outsiders first, the reasoning was that they felt it is always good to fight the outsider first and also they felt Minilk was not that strong and he can always come back and destroy him latter. They also advised the king that fighting the foreigners would guaranty him a place in heaven. So he went on to fight the outsiders in the border of Sudan, But fate has it his way, that the king died at the battle and Minlik later on rose to become King of Ethiopia. I think Melese is very aquatinted with his great grand ancestor’s story and is not going to make the same mistake, He is now in a dilemma to choose to fight with Eritrea or go after the uprising that is taking place in his home land. I think he is going for the latter. Other wise history will repeat itself and his head might be served on a plate as was the king’s Yohannies’s fate in Khartoum.

So it is in light of this situation that we must see, the so-called new initiative of US. It is nothing more than giving it a nice name for a change of policy on the US side because the facts on the ground has drastically changed in the past 7 or 8 month. This mission is a win- win for Melese and US. That is because for US they get to inflate their ego as to the peacemaker of the world. By breaking the dead lock at its 11th and 59 second from going to war by what they call "high powered officials" in the process they also obviously stop war from taking place and the region going in turmoil. For melse it is a win because he has been looking for a way out of this mess he has put him self in. Any other way would have been an humiliation for him, for instance if they UN were to enforce sanction on him or if he goes to war and looses all this could be seen a humiliating experience and he will not gain any thing from them. But a new and last initiative by America could be seen a way out of this and will provide him with a chance to take the opportunity as the person who stands for peace and accepts a deal by the US. Even though it was not in the best interest of Ethiopia for the sake of peace he is going to say he accepted it. One way or the other, what am trying to say is, Please don’t worry about how Eritrea is going to talk with Mrs. Frazer or how we should approach the US on this matter or not. This is more like a stage drama if any thing. By the time they get to Asmara, the only thing they will be talking about is how they have an assurance from melse for demarcation and when President Issayas would like demarcation to start. So finally in the next 2 weeks we should be hearing the dead lock has been broken and headlines after headlines will be praising the US for their relentless hard work in breaking the impasse and brining these two brotherly nations to peace. All the media outlet will be busy pampering US’s Ego of how well they performed, and probably Mrs. Frazer will get a medal for a job well done.

But brothers and sisters, we all know this victory goes only to two different groups. First and for most, The Eritrean defense force who stood firm and strong than ever who have paid dearly with their sweat and blood and who are standing there today to pay more if need be. Along with our proud defense force this victory goes to our government leaders, who unlike WOYANE did not back down or not been intimidated by the west. They opted for justice and justice only, no matter how the west tried to make ridicule of our leaders by coming up with every thing under the sun, our leaders have stayed focussed on what is right, and only thorough their sheer boldness and defiance against those who harbor injustice. The other people victorious of this peace are the people of Ethiopia who have championed in the ballot and have continue to resist to be ruled by a regime that have lost election and continues to kill their children, woman and elderly, while torturing and imprisoning their leaders.
I thank you for reading.

Victory To Eritrea And Glory to Our Martyrs !!!

Alula Afewerki